목차 요 약 ········································································································ i 제1장 중장기 인력수급전망 기본 가정과 방법 ·································· 1 1. 의의 ··································································································· 1 2. 추진경위 ···························································································· 1 3. 추진경과 ···························································································· 2 4. 전망방법 ···························································································· 4 5. 산업별, 직업별 전망방법 ································································· 6 6. 신규인력 수급차 전망 ······································································ 7 7. RAS방식 ···························································································· 8 제2장 중장기 노동공급 전망 ······························································· 11 1. 생산가능인구 전망 ········································································· 11 2. 경제활동인구 전망 ········································································· 17 제3장 중장기 노동수요 전망 ······························································· 28 1. 총량전망 방법 ················································································· 28 2. 산업별 실질 부가가치 성장전망 ··················································· 30 3. 취업자 전망 ···················································································· 40 4. 산업별 취업자 전망 ······································································· 43 5. 직업별 취업자 전망 ······································································· 60 6. 산업별×직업별 취업자 전망 ·························································· 75 7. 주요부문별 인력수요 전망 ···························································· 81 제4장 인력수급 미스매치 전망 ························································· 101 1. 미스매치 측정방법 ······································································· 101 2. 학력별 미스매치 ··········································································· 107 3. 전공별 미스매치 ··········································································· 111 4. 주요 부문별-전공별 미스매치 ······················································ 122 제5장 전망의 한계 및 정책적 시사점 ·············································· 132 1. 전망의 한계 ·················································································· 132 2. 정책적 시사점 ··············································································· 133 참고문헌 ································································································ 137 부 록 ····································································································· 139

중장기 인력수급전망은 구직자의 직업선택, 재학생의 직업진로지도, 정부의 고용정책 수립을 위해 중요한 기초자료 그간의 인력수급전망은 총량 전망과 부문별 전망을 각기 다른 기관에서 개별적으로 실시함에 따라 정합성이 떨어지는 문제 노출