제1장 목적 및 필요성··················································································1 제2장 인구 효과에 따른 인력수요 효과·······················································3 제1절 인력수급 변동 현황·····································································3 제2절 장래인구추계에 기반한 인력공급 제약 효과·································7 제3절 미시모의실험 방법에 기반한 인력공급 제약 효과·······················10 제4절 결론···························································································15 제3장 고용의 질 격차와 청년 고용 ·························································16 제1절 서론···························································································16 제2절 현황···························································································18 제3절 청년 선호 부문의 인력수급 불일치············································23 제4절 대졸 청년층의 노동시장 이중구조··············································32 제5절 결론···························································································49 제4장 노동보조금 정책의 고용 변동 분석··················································52 제1절 서론···························································································52 제2절 고용보조금의 이론·····································································53 제3절 한국의 고용보조금 제도·····························································57 제4절 고용보조금 설계 요소의 고용 효과 분석····································60 제5절 결론···························································································78 제5장 노동시간 실태와 추이 분석······························································82 제1절 들어가는 말················································································82 제2절 노동시간 추이············································································83 제3절 기술 통계···················································································89 제4절 회귀분석·····················································································97 제5절 다중로짓분석··············································································99 제6절 맺는말 – 요약과 함의·······························································102 제6장 자동차 산업 지역 일자리의 고용 효과 분석···································107 제1절 서론··························································································107 제2절 이론적 배경 및 선행 연구 검토················································110 제3절 자동차 산업 고용 현황 분석·····················································121 제4절 지역 일자리의 유형 비교··························································130 제5절 결론 및 시사점·········································································173 제7장 전공, 산업, 직업의 연관 메커니즘 분석··········································180 제1절 서론··························································································180 제2절 연구의 구성··············································································182 제3절 전공-산업-직업 구조································································183 제4절 노동시장 산업 직업 결정요인···················································218 제5절 결론··························································································252 제8장 스포츠 산업의 고용 변동·······························································257 제1절 서론··························································································257 제2절 스포츠 산업의 분류 체계··························································260 제3절 스포츠 산업의 고용 현황··························································262 제4절 고용 변동 요인 분석································································282 제5절 결론··························································································288 참고문헌 ···································································································297

우리나라의 지속 가능한 경제발전을 위해 적절한 인력양성정책이 요구된다. 경제 성장을 이끌어갈 인력을 양성하려면 산업의 일자리 구조를 살펴보아야 한다. 이를 위해 중장기 인력수급 전망이 필요하 다. 그런데 중장기 인력수급 전망의 활용성을 높이려면 신뢰도 확보가 필수적이다. 인력수급에 장기적으로 영향을 미치는 구조적 요인을 전망 모형에 반영해야 중장기 인력수급 전망 결과의 신뢰성을 높일 수 있을 것이다. 따라서 본 과제는 중장기적으로 인력 변동에 영향을 미치는 핵심 적인 요인을 다양한 관점에서 면밀하게 분석하고 있다. 특히 저출산 및 고령화에 따른 인구구조의 변화 와 기술혁신에 따른 일자리 구조의 변화는 중장기 인력수급에 영향을 미치는 대표적인 요인이다. 이는 인구 증가 둔화와 인구구조의 변화와 같은 인구 효과로 외화되어 인력공급에 큰 제약이 될 것을 경고하고 있다. 본 보고서는 이러한 인구구조의 변화에 따른 인력수요의 영향을 분석하고 있다. 중장기 인력수급 변 동에 영향을 미치는 요인으로 청년 고용 부문을 다루고 있다. 이를 통해 우리나라 노동시장의 이중구조 와 청년층의 특성이 결합하면서 인력수급 불일치가 해소되지 않음을 제시하고 있다. 또한, 고용보조금 정책이나 지역별 일자리 창출 모형이 고용 변동에 미치는 효과를 분석하고 있다. 이러한 분석 결과로 고 용촉진장려금을 중심으로 한 고용지원금 정책이 고용을 유지하는 효과가 있음을 확인할 수 있었고, 주로 자동차 산업에서 추진되고 있는 일자리 창출 모형이 지역별 인력수요의 증가에 기여할 수 있음을 파악 할 수 있었다. 이외에도 노동시간, 전공과 산업, 직업별 연계구조, 스포츠 산업의 고용구조를 분석하면서 중장기 인 력수급 전망에서 다루고 있는 분야에 대한 심층적 분석을 시도하고 있다. 한편 기술혁신은 중장기적으로 산업 및 직업별 고용구조를 크게 변화시킬 것으로 예측되어 별도의 과제에서 더욱 풍부하게 다루고 있다.